Wetter-Than-Usual Conditions Expected in Greater Horn of Africa for March to May 2024  – ICPAC

Source: ICPAC

In press release by The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the Meteorological Organisation announced that the March to May 2024 climate forecast indicates a higher probability of wetter-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Notably, the areas expected to experience these wetter conditions include  Burundi, Kenya, North-western Tanzania, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Southern Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Temperature Forecast for March – May 2024

The highest probabilities for wetter-than-usual conditions are indicated in central to western Kenya and the cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. The expected enhanced rainfall will positively impact agriculture, water resources, and overall livelihoods. In addition, an early to average rainfall onset is expected in several parts of the region.  These include northern  Tanzania, eastern Rwanda, southern and western Uganda, western Kenya, southwestern Somalia, and south-central Ethiopia.

“Due to the increased rainfall recorded in the October to December 2023 period, along with the forecast of wetter-than-normal conditions from March to May, there is an elevated risk of flooding in areas prone to floods.  The forecast underscores the urgency for coordinated action and preparedness, emphasising the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts and capitalise on the opportunities presented by the forecasted rainfall. Let us unite in our commitment to leveraging climate information for resilient and sustainable development across our region.” The ICPAC director, Dr Guleid Artan, stated.

Rainfall Forecast for March – May 2024

He further added that “while the food security situation may improve with wetter than usual conditions, it is important to remember the multiple challenges faced by the region, including the historic 2020-2022 drought, conflict in various parts of the region such as Sudan, and the El Nino-induced floods at the end of 2023. This has weakened communities’ coping capacity, making them highly susceptible to food insecurity. The likelihood of flooding during the 2024 MAM season in parts of the region could, therefore, lead to a deterioration in food security in localised areas.”

The objective temperature forecast suggests a heightened probability of above-average surface temperatures across the entire region. The likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions is particularly pronounced over Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Northern South Sudan, Somalia, Southern regions of Tanzania, and Sudan.

Following the guidelines and recommendations of the World Meteorological Organisation, ICPAC has implemented an objective seasonal forecast approach to produce climate predictions for the Greater Horn of Africa. The seasonal forecasts for March-April-May (MAM) 2024 were derived from data provided by nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and underwent processing using three calibration methods. This facilitated the development of the MAM 2024 seasonal climate outlook, ensuring accuracy and reliability in forecasting regional climate patterns.

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