According to the press release by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the June to September (JJAS) 2023 forecast shows a high probability of drier-than-usual conditions across the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Thus, low rainfall is expected until the end of the season in Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, western Kenya, significant areas of South Sudan and Sudan, and northern Uganda.
In addition, the analysis conducted by ICPAC suggests a higher probability of above-average temperatures throughout the entire region, with particular emphasis on southern, central and western Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya, northern Sudan, central and northern Somalia, and the coastal areas of Tanzania.
The June to September rainfall season holds significant importance for the northern GHA regions as it contributes to over 50% of its annual rainfall.
According to the ICPAC Director, Dr Guleid Artan, “The conditions we forecast could increase food insecurity in the region. Low rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures will likely affect crop productivity, with the risk of crop wilting and a hastened decline in pasture and water availability. Thus, IGAD’s partners must be vigilant and respond to the 49 million people facing severe food insecurity in the IGAD region”.
However, the March to May (MAM) 2023 season brought hope to the affected communities in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, as above-average rainfall was recorded in most of the region. This provided some relief after the region endured five consecutive seasons of drought.
“It is now very likely that we will transition from La Niña to El Niño between July and September”, explained Hussein Seid, Climate Modelling Expert at ICPAC. “At this stage, there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño, but in general, it is associated with depressed rainfall between June and September in the north of the region and wetter conditions between October and December in the equatorial parts. So, we must prepare for much wetter weather towards the end of the year. Hence, we encourage our users to consult our weekly and monthly updates with high predictability.”
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